Another problem is these self-fulfilling prophecies, which are embodied by Morgan Jackson's words (as quoted in the article).

Your assessment of Missouri's political climate is spot-on. But is that largely because of the thin bench of Missouri Democrats available? It could be a different case in, say, traditionally-red Ohio, if somebody such as Tim Ryan runs for Portman's soon-to-be-vacant seat.

And, rather than resigning themselves to Morgan Jackson's bleak prediction: Democrats could, instead, abandon their usual mealy-mouthed tendencies and look to the 2002 midterms as a model for how they can defy so-called "conventional wisdom." We don't even know specifically where all of the redistricted congressional boundaries will fall (on the new maps), quite yet.