Dave -- your first point (regarding the 2022 and 2024 election cycles) would more likely come to pass if Democrats and Independents allow themselves to get bogged down by self-fulfilling prophecies and dystopian porn.

So here's the solution: structure messaging+policy so it's the antithesis of fatalism. Pull out all the stops with maximizing voter turnout, mitigating voter suppression, and framing the midterms as an appealing event that everyone should WANT TO participate in.

That's how we prevent Scenario 1 from coming to pass.